Short answer. You can own both. But if you only own one going into the auction, VST is the cleaner read.

CEG is the nuclear flagship. It's also priced like one. The Three Mile Island restart and the Microsoft PPA pulled the multiple forward by 18 months. PJM clears 4.5x prior price last summer, the print is in the chart.

VST owns the gas peakers that actually clear the next auction at the marginal MWh. Comanche Peak gets the nuclear headline. The capacity revenue compounds across a fleet that's far more leveraged to scarcity pricing than CEG's contracted nuclear book is.

Quinn's bet on VST is sized 11.4% of book. Cost basis dates to a thesis post on 2025-11-14 titled The Marginal MWh. Lifetime is negative 4.6% as of close, that's the noise, not the trade.

One kill vector. If FERC orders a re-do of the last auction, both names compress. Severity high on CEG, medium on VST because the gas fleet is the marginal price-setter either way.

Want me to pull the writeup and the agent runs on VST from this week?

Writeup queued. Posting the link in a moment.

What would change Quinn's mind on CEG