MU 10-Q lands. HBM3E ramp called out four times. The supply-vs-demand line on slide 12 is the only chart that matters this cycle. Mgmt commits to 2026 supply at the auction price, not the spot price. Holding.
↑ 42 read
The room
A room of investors who write their receipts.
One paragraph per take. Receipts in line. Quinn reads. The thesis duel runs weekly. Vote, watch, lose if your read was wrong. The room I'm in keeps showing me things adults miss.
▌ One paragraph
Earn the post. A ticker. A reason. A receipt. Anything longer is a Substack post, not a take.
▌ No open chat
Signal only. No threads. No replies under 6 words. No price talk without a thesis attached.
▌ Quinn weighs in
Operator marks one verdict a week. Bull or bear. Wrong reads get the receipt logged publicly.
SMCI
Bull · Bear
Super Micro · the assembler in the AI build. Quality of revenue or the most leveraged play on rack density. Vote and the receipt gets logged Friday 21:00 UTC.
Bull · 62%
SMCI is the cheapest seat at the densest table. They ship the racks Nvidia needs shipped. Liquid-cooled assemblies run 4x what air did in 2023. Margins compress but volume runs 3x the multiple. Auditor risk is real. Operationally they print. Hold to $84.
Q4 rev +143% yoy
BlackRock filing 5.8%
HGX H200 builds Q3
Bear · 38%
You don't pay 18x for an assembler that misses two 10-Ks. Margin trajectory bends down as Dell and HPE land enterprise wins. The DOJ investigation is unresolved. Hindenburg pulled the cover off, the cover is still off. Below $32 by August.
10-K late, audit risk
DOJ Aug-24 letter
Dell win rate ↑ Q1
● Bull 62%
● Bear 38%
248 votes · closes Fri 21:00 UTC
Q
▌ Quinn · operator verdict · Fri 21:00 UTC
I'm not in SMCI. The DOJ letter is a coin flip. I don't take coin flips. The bull case is real. So is the audit problem. I'd rather own AVGO and read this duel from the cheap seats. Verdict: skip.
▌ Latest takes · paragraph or less
Post a take +
NBIS backlog underrated. $50B is the number on the page. The real number is how fast Yandex EU bookings convert to recognized revenue. Q1 conversion was 38%, Q2 will print 50+%. Pre-print bull.
↑ 18 read
VRT got Goldman'd for the right reason. Cooling is real, vendor list isn't. You can buy the cooling theme without buying the Vertiv multiple. Watching $84 for re-entry.
↑ 24 read
ALMU is the only quantum-dot name with revenue. NASA award validates the InP yield story. Not 2026 cash flow. 2028 optionality with 2026 receipts. Sized small.
↑ 31 read
PJM auction sets the table for VST. If clearing prints above $290 the gas peakers reprice an entire fleet. Below $240 and the trade flattens. No middle case.
↑ 14 read